(The Guardian) 39,000 soldiers will leave Iraq this year, but US military control will continue in such guises as security and training
Barack Obama has made good on one of his election promises, announcing: "After nearly nine years, America's war in Iraq will be over." The Iraqis' assertion of their sovereignty – meaning no legal immunity for US troops – was the deal-breaker, and 39,000 US soldiers will leave Iraq by the end of the year.
Jonathan Steele wrote that the Iraq war was over and the US had learned "that putting western boots on the ground in a foreign war, particularly in a Muslim country, is madness". Yet this madness may continue in a different guise, as there is a huge gap between rhetoric and reality surrounding the US departure from Iraq. In fact, there are a number of avenues by which the US will be able to exert military influence in the country.
The Guardian - In the shadow of the clampdowns in Syria far too much focus has been placed on the character and intentions of President Bashar al-Assad.
Too often in the past, US congressman and European parliamentary delegations have returned from Damascus after hours spent with Assad convinced that he is a like-minded reformer. Memorable highlights include Peter Mandelson declaring after such a meeting that he liked Assad who was "a decent man doing a difficult job", and Hillary Clinton's recent surprising faith in the "many of the members of Congress of both parties who have gone to Syria in recent months [and] have said they believe he's a reformer".
(Guardian) Lebanon's role in a UN security council resolution against Libya is evidence of unfinished business between the two countries
In the UN security council on Tuesday, Lebanon tabled a resolution backed by Britain and France for a no-fly zone to be imposed over Libya. The Lebanese ambassador, Nawaf Salam, told reporters: "Measures ought to be taken to stop the violence, to put an end to the situation in Libya, to protect the civilians there."
The move followed a meeting in Cairo on Saturday when the Arab League voted to ask the UN for a no-fly zone – and the task of doing so fell to Lebanon as the only Arab member of the security council.
At one level the Arab initiative might be seen, at least in part, as retaliation from some league members and key individuals for Gaddafi's troublemaking at Arab summits over the years. But in Lebanon's case there are other dimensions too.
Without the two main architects of his policy on Afghanistan, the fundamental flaws in Obama's surge are unavoidable
(The Guardian) A flurry of reports indicate how the US has neither the time nor the ability to defeat the Taliban or build an Afghan state that can deliver real justice to the country.
The failures of General Stanley McChrystal, who resigned in June, and Richard Holbrooke, who died suddenly this week, are symbolic of the crumbling of the twin pillars, both military and civilian, of Barack Obama's counterinsurgency strategy (Coin). The US has now outlasted the Soviet presence of the 1980s and the Afghan war has entered a violent stalemate.
(The Guardian) The Lebanese cabinet dodged a bullet on 10 November by postponing a vote about witnesses who allegedly gave investigators false information on the killing of former prime minister Rafik Hariri. The issue has been dominating Lebanese politics amid fears that it could spark an internal conflict similar to that of 2008, when Hezbollah and its supporters took over the streets of Beirut.
The special tribunal for Lebanon (STL), set up to try those suspected of involvement in Hariri's assassination, is supported by western governments but Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shia movement, has condemned it as "biased". Hillary Clinton, the US secretary of state, has warned against attempts to "discredit" the tribunal, while William Hague, the British foreign secretary, announced a further £1m funding in support for the tribunal and declared that "justice is the only way to ensure stability in Lebanon".
(The Guardian) Over the last week in publicity trailing the release of his autobiography, former president George W Bush admitted that when it came to Iraq he felt a "sickening feeling". Sadly for those looking for greater remorse he was only referring to the failure to discover weapons of mass destruction. But as a man of devout Christian faith it would be interesting to discover what Bush's thoughts are on the fact that one of the consequences of his war is that Iraq's Christian community of 1 million pre-war has shrunk by 60% since 2003, as its members have fled abroad or been killed.
As a minority population living in a country whose mode of politics can only be described as a bloody hybrid of democracy and sectarianism, Iraq's Christians have borne an unfair burden of recent tragedy. Their precarious position was highlighted over the past 10 days by the sentencing to death of prominent Christian and former Ace of Spades most-wanted, Tariq Aziz, and the bloody massacre of 46 worshippers in a Baghdad church near the Green Zone.
While for many in the Middle East the sum of all fears is an Iranian-inspired nuclear arms race, this terrifying spectre should not distract from the very real scramble for conventional weapons that is already in play across the region. The visit of the Iranian president to Lebanon will refocus attention on the capabilities of Hezbollah, yet Iraq remains the most contested strategic prize with would-be allies in both Tehran and Washington engaged in a high-stakes tug of war.
One of the legacies of the Afghan adventure is the blurring of lines between humanitarian and military operations
Non-governmental organisations have faced their fair share of criticism for their role in Afghanistan. Linda Polman, in her book War Games, described how Afghans who having lived through Soviet communism and Taliban Islamism, are experiencing the new dynamic of "NGO-ism".
The chaos of a war zone combined with the financial attraction of an invasion led by the world's remaining superpower has proved a potent mix for a multitude of NGOs to flock to the country.
Aid agencies have been accused of chasing contracts – which has resulted in a geographic imbalance of aid with resources focused on those areas suffering from actual conflict while ignoring areas with the security to benefit from sustainable development. This has meant that aid has often failed to adjust to Afghan needs, for example 10-15% of all Afghan land is arable to farming yet despite 80% of Afghans relying upon agriculture only 5% of international aid goes to that sector.
The Syrian president's triumphant return to Lebanon after five years comes at a crucially sensitive time for the country
In the maelstrom of rhetoric that swirls around the Middle East the warnings of Hezbollah should ring alarm bells. Concern that the investigation into the killing of former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri will implicate a "Hezbollah commando unit" brought Hassan Nasrallah out to address a press conference where he ominously warned that the Shia movement "know how to defend themselves".
This month has also seen an intensive Israeli military rehearsal of a war with Lebanon in addition to the release of maps and previously classified aerial photographs of what Israel described as a network of Hezbollah weapons depots and command centres in south Lebanon.
Sheikh Nabil Kaouk, Hezbollah's commander in south Lebanon, responded in kind warning that the group has a list of military targets inside Israel that they could attack. The discovery of large-scale gas deposits in the sea near the two countries' shared border simply provided another accelerant to conflict.
Into this simmering cocktail enters the Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad, returning to Lebanon for the first time since the Hariri assassination in 2005.
Until we prioritise the tracking of Afghanistan's civilian casualties we can never understand the 'everyday squalor' of war
(The Guardian) Human Rights Watch's Rachel Reid is entirely correct when she said that "accountability is not just something you do when you are caught". Yet the leaked US military files have the potential to do just this.
Reading the files, what struck me was the lack of surprises. All the documents did was provide an official narrative to what has already been reported (and often vigorously denied) over the past nine years. High civilian casualties, rampant corruption and incompetency within the Afghan government and security forces, the Janus-nature of Pakistan's involvement in the conflict, Iran's less than helpful role, the tactical impact of advanced drone technology and low-tech IEDs – all of which have been reported on before.
Two years into the conflict in Syria and the mask has slipped revealing that Assad is willing to enter the heart of darkness and take down the state along with his regime.
Living in Syria in the period 2005-2007, one was always struck by the blatant contradictions that characterised Assad's rule. In the jasmine-scented alleyways of the Old City of Damascus you never felt threatened by criminality and away from the bustle of the Souk there was a pervading sense of peacefulness -- yet this was a country living in a seemingly infinite state of emergency, with feared secret police forces and infamous prisons. If you wanted to find out about the workings of the State or the actions of its government the very last place you'd go is the Ministry of Information. State newspapers would seemingly report anything but the news. The country was technically at war with Israel but the Golan had been quiet for decades, with tourists to the town of Quneitra treated to an experience similar to visiting a museum rather than a potential flashpoint on the border of contested occupied territory. Beyond the facade of elections Government Ministers and Parliamentarians were mouthpieces for Assad and the Shadow State that kept his regime in power. The ubiquitous poster of Bashar and his father watched down on you everywhere you went -- Big Brother was indeed watching you.
The international community knows that the situation is bad and getting worse but lacks the unity and political capital to do anything about it
(Huffington Post) When will we arrive at a tipping point in Syria? This is the frequently asked question that followed the early momentum of the uprising in 2011, the bloody siege of Baba Amr in March, the double suicide bombing in Damascus and the bloody massacre of children and civilians in Hula in May.
Despite the lack of access for international media the outside world cannot claim to be ignorant of what is happening in the country. True the details are murky and there remain huge questions of whom/what the Shabiha are and the extent of Al Qaeda penetration, but more or less the daily toll of bloodshed is known both in figures and horrific stories. Behind the main headlines I’ve seen videos of people buried alive by men in army uniforms, heard stories of skinned bodies being returned to terrified relatives and attended events where various members of the opposition talk of the desperate plight that sections of the Syrian population are enduring.
Despite a brief lull when the Annan plan was launched the violence has steadily increased and the notion that the cease fire is holding is a tragic testimony to international impotence towards the conflict. Like climate change the vast majority of the global population know that what is going on is bad, but the mechanisms of international governance, and in particular the United Nations charged with the ‘responsibility to protect’, simple cannot respond.
The Annan plan is like the Kyoto Treaty, the best and only game in town but completely unsuited for the scale of what it is trying to address. The world’s major powers are trapped in a comfortable inertia. The Europeans and the Americans are happy to make diplomatic gestures, like throwing out Syrian Ambassadors, and talking about how the Assad regime has lost legitimacy, but their biggest effort to unite the Syrian opposition remains half-baked to say the least. The Chinese and the Russians meanwhile, still smarting from being conned on Libya UNSCR 1973 and with deep strategic and economic ties with Syria, are stonewalling any movement at the United Nations.
(Huffington Post) The heady optimism of 2011 and the rapid fall of the regimes of Gaddafi, Mubarak and Ben Ali, has been replaced by disappointment in the new military leadership in Cairo, deep divisions in Libya and of course the continued brutal clampdown against protestors in Syria. Western public's confidence in the Arab Spring, divided from the start between support to the non-violent square seizing revolutionaries and scepticism about the religious slogan chanting Islamists, can be forgiven for wondering what will happen next.
In the interests of creative thinking I suggest that there are a series of interesting parallels with the original Star Wars trilogy (episodes IV-VI) can provide a practical narrative of understanding.
This may appear a little bizarre but it is worth remembering that the original Star Wars films chronicled the story of a hero who represents a crucially important demographic component of what would form the Arab Spring's revolutionary vanguard. Indeed Luke Skywalker was a under-employed young graduate, living at home with high expectations for his future not being met by the Empire's lack of attention to the provincial backwater where he lived. As the Observer's Henry Porter explained, "youth unemployment and the grinding lack of hope are the source of the most serious social and political problems across the Arab world. The unemployment rate among Tunisians under 25 is about 26%. Half of the 60,000 graduates released on to the jobs market every year will not find work".
Skywalker would ultimately be responsible for the destruction of Empire's most fearsome weapon largely due to secret official documents being smuggled to the rebels that he joined. Although it cannot be said to be of the same impact, the smuggled official secret US diplomatic cables, revealed in the Wikileaks documents, highlighted cases of massive corruption in the Ben Ali and Mubarak regimes. As the US Ambassador in Tunis wrote "whether it's cash, services, land, property, or yes, even your yacht, President Ben Ali's family is rumoured to covet it and reportedly gets what it wants".
(Huffington Post) It was not Facebook, Twitter or YouTube that brought down Hosni Mubarak. The Egyptian people did that. But this does not mean that social media and internet-based technologies played no role, or that their role was insignificant, as some have alleged. Rather, events in Egypt and countries across the Middle East and North Africa have shown in the 'Arab Spring' that internet platforms and technologies should be seen for what they are: effective tools for the conduct of political campaigns in authoritarian contexts.
This conclusion was reached in a new paper written by Tim Eaton who currently works for BBC Media Action on media development projects in the Middle East. The paper is the product of over a year of research and seeks to analyze the use of online activism in the Egyptian uprisings of January and February 2011, drawing out the lessons learned in addition to applying them to the wider context of the Arab Spring.
(Huffington Post) Four days after the official US troop presence ended, Baghdad has been struck by bombings that are a reminder that for ordinary Iraqis the horror continues.
Soft, unprotected civilian targets were hit by co-ordinated, simultaneous attacks that were likely planned prior to Shi’a Prime Minister Maliki’s Monday decision to order the arrest of Sunni Vice-President Tariq al-Hashimi. The Western press has focused on the potential for larger sectarian bloodletting, the reality is that this bombing fits into a fairly predictable pattern of violence that has been largely ignored by the media. Indeed the average monthly death toll in Iraq exceeds 300 and kidnappings, bombings and shootings are daily occurrences.
The Iraqi security forces are now some 650,000 strong and according to US military trainers becoming more competent by the day. With this in mind a combination of manpower, equipment and checkpoints (in addition to reconciliation efforts that I will come onto) have reduced the frequency of attacks against religious sites and ceremonies, government institutions and in particular against the security forces themselves.
Huffington Post - Bashar al-Assad is the man most likely to bring down his own regime. Why? Because if we trace back both the president's reaction to the protests in addition to his previous ten years in charge, we can see that his attempts at reforms have unwittingly creating the environment in which challenges to the regime continue to flourish.
Assad has undermined the bedrock of his father's coup-proof state by marginalizing the old guard, introducing communications technology and the internet to the country, reducing funding to the military, removing the local power of Baath party committees and the unions, and, in the pursuing his version of the 'Chinese model' of economic reform, exacerbating class differences and forcing large sections of Syrian society to rely on more traditional tribal and sectarian networks.
(Huffington Post) I was recently fortunate enough to visit the sprawling Rocinha favela, one of the largest in Rio, which sits on a stunning hillside in a cove overlooking the Atlantic about a ten minutes drive from Ipanema beach. The Rio Favelas are synonymous in popular fiction with crime and violence, from the epic City of God to the episodes in Modern Warfarethat place the gamer in charge of shooting their way out of the dense and mazelike warren of houses.
As with the slums in Mumbai, the ethics of whether or not to visit the favelas are hotly contested. One of our guides, a friend who has lived and worked in Rocinha for the past year producing a film, spoke of the gaggles of tourists who arrive on organized trips from their hostels to rush through the central street and gawp at the heavily armed traficos that until recently held sovereignty over the population estimated at between 150-300,000 people.
Yet times in Brazil are changing, as the B in the BRIC economies charges up the table of the world's richest countries (it is now 8th) and looks forward to hosting the World Cup in 2014 and the Olympics one year later. The favelas are not immune to this transition and according to the UN study "State of the World Cities 2010/2011" Brazil has reduced its favela shantytown population by 16 percent in the last decade, with "an improvement in the living standards of 10.5 million Brazilians." According to the study, the poor living in favelas went down from 31.5 to 26.4 percent of the population.
(Huffington Post) Regime change in Libya has a number of parallels with Afghanistan and Iraq – but have the proponents of intervention embraced the good and avoided the bad of previous campaigns?
Afghanistan
1)Aerial Intervention
Same, Same
In both Afghanistan and Libya NATO airpower proved decisive.
In Libya rebel forces were in danger of being routed in Benghazi in March before NATO airpower and 20,000 sorties against Gaddafi’s military made the difference.
In Afghanistan airpower broke a stalemate between the Northern Alliance and the Taliban in 2001. The Northern Alliance’s victory was not only down to NATO airpower. Crucially a number of former Taliban allied warlords defected and joined the push to Kabul.
Similarly the Libyan rebels have benefitted from both military and political defections – with the high profile cases of Musa Kosa and the NTC’s leader, the former Gaddafi Justice Minister Mahmoud Jibril.
But Different
NATO was very conscious of the propaganda coup that Gaddafi would win if airstrikes resulted in large scale civilian casualties. With this in mind the rules of aerial engagement were considerably tighter than in Afghanistan where B-52s were in action in comparison to Tornadoes armed with more accurate Brimstone missiles. On more than one occasion British aircraft were called off an attack during an 8-hour roundtrip mission due to concerns over civilian casualties.
(New Statesman) The country, largely ignored by the international media, is about to agree to long-term American "occupation-lite".
"Iraq-fatigue" has meant that a series of critical events in the country have been largely ignored. There is, of course, the continued insecurity. June was the deadliest month for Iraqis this year, with 271 people killed and another 35 massacred in a car bombing in Taji at the start of July. Meanwhile, 14 US soldiers also died in June, making it the deadliest month for the US in three years.
(Huffington Post) The Transformers series can simple be seen as teenage fun, complete with battling robots, gorgeous women and shiny sports cars, however beneath the surface Michael Bay blockbusters are a powerful messaging vehicle for the US military. Transformers 2 was the biggest joint Military operation movie ever made and the narrative develops further with the latest instalment.
Indeed hidden within the clash of metal and the rattle of gunfire, the films central message concerns the dangers of America feeling too secure in the post- Bin Laden era and in particular warns against any significant mothballing of the military. Much of the two and a half hours of action could come straight out of military recruitment films. The Pentagon, one of Hollywood’s biggest players, gave Bay access to a host of boy’s toys allowing a tour de force of US military hardware including tomahawk missiles, surveillance drones, Osprey aircraft and of course heroic Navy Seals.
Assad will hope that it’s not three strikes and out after his latest attempt to halt the momentum of protests.
(Huffington Post) Bashar al-Assad did not apologise for the events of the past few months that have left over 1,500 dead, instead he attempted to reassure Syria’s silent majority that he is the caring paternal figure that can guide the state in the right direction by cleansing the country of ‘germs’, protect against external conspiracy and continue his version of a reform process.
As opposed to the talkative Gaffadi who has made regular appearances or statements over the past months, Assad has only appeared three times to speak to the Syrian public. At each occasion the embattled President has offered concessions including the abolishing of the emergency law, granting citizenship to thousands of stateless Kurds and giving incentives to conservative Islamic groups.
However so far he has proved unable to halt or reverse the gathering momentum of active opposition against his regime.
(Huffington Post)The protests in Syria are entering a new phase, with reports of the resistance taking up arms in parts of the country against the security forces and the government promising a 'decisive' response. The West appears impotent to prevent further slaughter. However high-tech tools could expose Syria's brutal underbelly and bring a halt to the crackdown.
What has been clear since the start of the protests in Syria is that whatever the government is doing, they're not keen for the rest of the world to see. In contrast to the fixed camera positions that looked upon the tens of thousands of protestors and inactive tanks in Egypt's Tahrir Square, the Assad regime quickly cleansed the country of international press and has since embarked on a cat and mouse game against web based communications.
(Huffington Post) Osama Bin Laden once said that he worshipped death, while his enemies worshipped life. Yet Al Qaeda's original Dr. Evil and Global Terror's bête noir did not go out in a blaze of glory at a time of his own choosing, but rather was summarily dispatched by US Navy Seals in his own bedroom.
In the near term and for the next months Western intelligence and security forces will be very concerned by any response to his death. It is highly likely that AQ has been preparing for this eventual scenario, which considering the focus in finding/killing him was always fairly predictable outcome. Governments will be particularly worried that there are potential sleeper cells that have been activated to respond in order to restore the narrative of AQ's potency now that its figurehead rests at the bottom of the sea. A reminder of the continued threat to Europe from AQ came as recently as last Friday, when 3 men were arrested in Germany for posing a "concrete and imminent danger" to the nation.
(Huffington Post) The Syrian protestors, whether they be characterised as 'pro democracy' or 'anti regime', are dangerously isolated and very much in the tank sights of the regime. The promised 'iron fist' is being deployed. Over the past weeks over 400 people have reportedly been killed. Daraa has been quarantined and had its electricity and telephone lines cut, even those with satellite phones are finding it hard to recharge them. The Western press has been barred from the country and joins the rest of the world in depending on amateur YouTube clips to work out what's going on.
Assad's regime, sensitive to the fate of Mubarrak, Ben Ali and Gaddafi, whilst also mindful of their Iranian ally's success in dealing with the Green movements protestors, is attempting to reimpose its monopoly on fear.
Concessions towards the Kurds, the conservative Sunni mercantile elite, abolition of the emergency law and the sacking of parliament have emptied the Syrian political cupboard of all its carrots and all that appears to be left is the trusted stick that saw the regime through the years of internal conflict in the late 1970s and early 1980s.
(Huffington Post) Lebanon, again bereft of a government and with the country split down the middle into pro and anti-Syria camps, now faces the repercussions of instability in Syria.
There is a saying in the Middle East that ‘chaos in Lebanon does not mean chaos in Syria, but chaos in Syria is guaranteed to destabilise Lebanon’.
This Friday all eyes will be on the potential for protests and the government response in Syria. However there is also a flashpoint looming in northern Lebanon where both pro and anti-Syrian regime protests have been planned. Lebanese Security officials in the north have rejected requests for permits to hold the two demonstrations in Tripoli, but their calls have fallen on deaf ears with both protests being advertised widely.
(Huffington Post)The Syrian city of Deraa is rapidly becoming the Tahrir Square of the escalating Syrian revolution, but with the regime promising "no more room for leniency or tolerance", what or who will prevent a repeat of the Hama massacre of 1982?
The Western appetite for intervention, supposedly drained by the fiasco of Iraq and never-ending specter of Afghanistan, came alive at the prospect of the fall of Bengazi and the potential death of thousands. But with momentum in Libya significantly stalled what will the international community be able to do to prevent the Syrian regime from pursuing draconian measures to quell its swelling protests?
This is a very real prospect. Assad Snr biographer Patrick Seale is likely right when he warns that 'the regime has decided to fight back with full force'. Some 200 people have reportedly been killed already, with the death toll from Friday at over 37. Human Rights Activists have said that "the secret police have been rounding up every outspoken figure they can get their hands on" with Fayez Sara, a journalist who was jailed for two-and-a-half years along with 11 Damascus Declaration members and released in 2010, arrested again on Sunday. Reports from Syria suggest that elite Republican Guard snipers have been deployed and Al Jazeera highlighted the closure of roads to Deraa and the construction of earth mounds blocking access to the restive city.
(Huffington Post) Unable to blame foreign powers, Assad's next move is the greatest test of his ability to reform Syria
The modern Syrian republic is a chimera whose mothballed constitution hides the true face of an authoritarian monarchy that legislates through powers granted through a vicious and all consuming emergency law. While Syria appeared initially immune to the revolutionary shockwaves spreading through the region, unrest in Deraa and a cack-handed government response of rotten carrots and bloody sticks has simply served to rally a momentum that has spread across the country.
(Huffington Post) In the shadow of the budget, Libyan assets abroad and captured oil revenues should be used to fund the no fly zone over the country
As Tomahawk missiles costing four libraries a time crash into Colonel Gaddafi’s military infrastructure we should think about new ways to fund our newly empowered responsibility to protect.
According to YouGov Less than half the British public backs military action in Libya. One of the likely reasons for this is not a doubt about the character of Gaddafi and his murderous intentions, but rather whether or not Britain can afford to be the global moral vanguard at this time of austerity.
This week Sweden froze around 10 billion kronor ($1.6 billion) of assets belonging to Muammar Gaddafi's regime in Libya. Last month Barack Obama directed the US Treasury to block $30bn (£18.45bn) in assets held by Gaddafi and his officials, the largest action ever undertaken by the US, said Treasury officials. At the same time Britain froze the assets of Gaddafi and his five children on Sunday evening at an emergency meeting of the Privy Council at Windsor castle presided over by the Queen. The chancellor, George Osborne, acted amid reports that the Libyan leader had moved £3bn to Britain last week. In a separate cloak-and-dagger operation, £900m of Libyan currency was impounded in Britain.
Much of the debate to date has focused on the mechanisms rather than the morality of this intervention. David Cameron has repeatedly said that the Libyan people should be allowed to determine their own future. In order for there to be sustainable British public support for the no-fly zone and its £70,000 an hour Typhoon bills to continue, then the allies should work to convert Gaddafi’s hidden fortune into the fuel that powers action against him.
(Huffington Post) I think the need for action to prevent a routing of the rebels/population of the East is important at a humanitarian level. But considering the location of Gaddafi's forces does this new alliance have assets in place to prevent the fall of Benghazi? Libya's surprise announcement of a ceasefire and a halt to operations suggests that the resolution has succeeded in warning Gaddafi off risking such a move.
I think that the decision does has legitimacy. The Arab League sponsored Lebanon's tabling of the motion and at the Security Council it has received 10 votes in favour with none against.
Arab support and the fact that Arab aircraft will surely play a part in the operations mean that the decision cannot be seen as the West imposing its will on the Middle East. In addition the fact that China and Russia choose not to veto (considering their traditional oil/weapons concerns) is evidence of the regional nature of support for placing a break on Gaddafi's counterattack in what has clearly become a civil war. I don't think that oil/weapon sales is the reason for the Western powers supporting the decision. I thought it was very interesting that the Americans played a supporting rather than leading role at the United Nations (this may have also impacted the Chinese, Russian veto decision), I was equally disappointed that the Germans shattered any sense of European unity by abstaining.
So Cameron is correct when he says that UNSCR 1973 reflects 1) demonstrable need 2) regional support 3) strong legal basis
(Huffington Post) World leaders cringe at archive footage of them embracing Colonel Gaddafi. Staff at the London School of Economics resign or eat humble pie as a consequence of their relations with Libya. Has engagement with authoritarian states and their leaderships been proven to be a fool’s errant?
This week’s battle for Bregga may be one day seen in hindsight as the transitional moment from Libya’s revolution to Libya’s civil war. The evolving physical conflict has meant that the debate will naturally focus on talk of military interventions and sanctions. However, more complex than theories of liberal interventionalism is the question about how the West can be expected to configure its day to day relations with countries which possess few freedoms and poor human rights records.
For example should BP and the other Western oil companies, who are currently hedging their bets as whether or not to leave the Libya, be placed under the same level of scrutiny as the academics of LSE and politicos of Westminster? YouGov polling showed that half the public (51%) actually backed British companies operating in Libya to extract oil, with only 21% thought it was wrong. LSE’s Sir Howard Davies resigned over embarrassment concerning a £2.2m deal to train hundreds of young Libyans, yet YouGov polling on the British public’s view on Libya showed that a large majority (69%) thinks Britain was right to help Libya with education and training.
The Majalla - Ten years after the invasion of the country, Iraq faces another round of elections against a backdrop of increased sectarian tensions and political intrigue.
On a recent visit to Iraq, I found little appetite or excitement for the upcoming local elections scheduled for April 20. One taxi driver said, “They’ve only recently finished working out how to share power from the last election, and now there is another vote.” Iraq’s fledgling democracy continues to be characterized by fragility as it faces its first elections since 2010. Political violence is increasing as we head towards the vote: on April 6, a suicide bomb and grenade attack killed at least twenty-two people and injured about fifty at a Sunni political rally in the eastern Iraqi city of Baquba.
To date, the country’s complex structures of political power have been a formula for gridlock in the name of national unity. A broad mix of ethnic, sectarian and tribal parties maneuver for an acceptable balance of power while Prime Minister Maliki continues to harvest authority directly to his office. These political institutions remain unable to peacefully channel dissent, with bloody violence a regular feature of what increasingly resembles an Iraqi Game of Thrones. Russia Today has reported that the total number of politicians killed in the run-up to April’s elections now stands at eleven. In March, the spiraling death toll saw the government postpone the elections in the Sunni-majority governorates of Anbar and Nineveh for what it called security reasons. The cabinet, rejecting subsequent legal opposition to the move, confirmed that it was based on the requests of Anbar’s council, official entities, political blocs and parties, and the provinces’ dignitaries.
(The Majalla) Iraq’s Kurds Preparing to Challenge history
Ten years after the Iraq War, is this the moment for Iraqi Kurdistan to emerge from the shadows of its bloody past?
A birds-eye view of the northern Iraqi city of Erbil, the capital of the autonomous Kurdistan region, on 19 March 2013
The vast majority of global debate over the tenth anniversary of the invasion of Iraq has focused on the rights and wrongs of the decision to go to war and questions over whether the beleaguered Iraqis are now better off than they were under Saddam. While war fatigue and the Arab Spring have meant that Iraq has been much underreported in recent years, anniversaries are always opportune moments to take stock of where things are. This is especially true of Iraq, since it continues to sit at a crossroads, facing existential questions over its future identity.
Tragically fitting of the new type of insecurity faced by Iraqis, on the March 19 eve of the invasion anniversary a series of coordinated bomb blasts targeted Shi’a areas across Baghdad, killing over sixty people. Despite taking huge strides forward since the end of the 2006–2008 civil war, the new Iraq currently has the Sunni west of the country in open revolt, inspired by both the revolution in Syria and anger at the policies of Prime Minister Maliki. Maliki himself is a man whose growing authoritarian tendencies are increasingly of concern to outside observers, with Professor Toby Dodge describing him as consolidating his power by bringing the paramilitary and intelligence services under his direct control.
While the elites bicker, the country continues to suffer from chronic insecurity combined with struggling infrastructure, intermittent electricity and a poverty of effective state institutions. For example, instead of acting as a democratic beakon for the region, the Iraqi Parliament is a testimony to gridlock, inertia and incompetence, struggling to even find the numbers for the decisions it rarely makes. Indeed, the Parliament finally passed the country’s budget this March, despite it having been approved by the Iraqi cabinet the previous October.
The world appears to have run out solutions to the Syrian crisis. An extensive five-month report commissioned by the UN revealed in January that the generally accepted death toll of around 40,000 was wrong by almost half. Instead, the statisticians showed that 60,000 people had been killed by the end of last November; a death toll that is increasing at a rate of 5,000 a month. The steady increase in the lethality of fighting is also forcing more to flee the country, with January this year seeing a record 56,000 people cross into Jordan alone.
The UN Security Council remains divided against this backdrop of bloodshed. The Russians and the Chinese are refusing to countenance the notion of Syria’s sovereignty being compromised on the basis of internal fighting. At the same time, the US and Europe have ruled out unilateral military intervention and are deeply nervous about providing anything more than non-lethal support to the still-fragmented Syrian opposition. Yet the popular narrative—even from the Russians—is that it is only a matter of time before the Assad regime falls. This raises a huge range of questions as to what will happen after the conflict, and although it is certainly presumptuous to imagine a post-Assad Syria, it is nevertheless necessary to ensure that the international community is prepared for such an eventuality.
(Your Middle East) An extensive 5-month report commissioned by the UN revealed last week that the generally accepted death toll of around 40,000 in Syria was wrong almost by half. Instead the statisticians have showed that 60,000 had been killed by the end of last November, a death toll which is increasing at a rate of 5,000 a month, which surely puts even conservative figures today at 70,000 killed in the conflict as we near the March two-year anniversary.
Over 2 million Syrians are internally displaced with many living in desperate conditions. Recent news reports have claimed that some displaced people in the north of Syria are even resorting to living in animal shelters and are eating boiled grass as they do not have enough food to be able to survive the winter weather. Over 570,000 Syrians, a large percentage of whom are women and children, have already fled the country with the UN saying that 84,000 left in December alone. Last year Save the Children reported how unaccompanied children were making their way into Jordan carrying few or no physical possessions, but bearing the immense psychological scars of losing home and family.
Inside Syria the escalation of violence has seen a conflict originally characterised by the government firing on peaceful protestors with small arms to a full blown war complete with SCUD missiles, heavy artillery, cluster bombs and napalm like barrel bombs dropped from aircraft. Massacres and atrocities are hard to keep track of with those in Houla and Jisr al-Shughour best remembered, along with the stories of beheadings, executions, the targeting of civilians queuing to buy bread, growing sectarian strife and a glut of horrific YouTube clips. The conflict and the steady collapse of the state have seen transnational fighters on the move across the region and new groups establishing themselves with a host of ideologies and agendas.
Over 60,000 people have been killed in Syria. What prospects face the beleaguered country in 2013?
(James Denselow, Open Democracy) An extensive 5-month report commissioned by the UN revealed this week that the generally accepted death toll of around 40,000 in Syria was wrong almost by half. Instead the statisticians have showed that 60,000 had been killed by the end of last November, a death toll which is increasing at a rate of 5,000 a month, which surely puts even conservative figures today at 70,000 killed in the conflict as we near the March two-year anniversary.
Over 2 million Syrians are internally displaced with many living in desperate conditions. Recent news reports have claimed that some displaced people in the north of Syria are even resorting to living in animal shelters and are eating boiled grass as they do not have enough food to be able to survive the winter weather. Over 570,000 Syrians, a large percentage of whom are women and children, have already fled the country with the UN saying that 84,000 left in December alone. Last year Save the Children reported how unaccompanied children were making their way into Jordan carrying few or no physical possessions, but bearing the immense psychological scars of losing home and family.
Meanwhile the country’s infrastructure, both modern and historic, has been battered to the tune of billions of dollars. According to Islamic Relief, some 59% of public hospitals have been damaged or destroyed. Cities such as Homs and Aleppo can be compared to Beirut in the 1980s or the Grozny in the 1990s, with recent media reports highlighting how the industrial parts of Aleppo have been looted down to their wiring.
So what hope does 2013 hold for Syria? Is the night darkest before the dawn or will the UN Envoy Brahimi’s warnings of the country descending into “hell” manifest?
Earlier this week the Telegraph’s Chief Foreign Correspondent surmised that “the disaster in Syria is getting steadily worse, and no one has any idea what to do about it”. I would agree with the first part of his argument but would suggest that the internal dynamics in the country don’t reflect a stalemate absent of ideas, but rather the continued erosion of the regime’s sovereignty over the country.
In March 2013 the conflict will have raged for two years. The breathtaking momentum of the Arab Spring has been stuck in the deep bloody mud of a civil war that has seen over 40,000 killed, more than 150,000 wounded and an estimated 13% of the population (3 million) forced from their homes. As I write MSF has reported that the eastern city of Deir Azzour (pre-war population 600,000) is under siege and in a desperate state.
In Syria the unstoppable force of the Arab Spring has clashed most spectacularly with the unmoveable realities of the region’s geopolitics. An American diplomat has described Syria as a proxy war, a civil war and lots of small internal wars all happening at once. CIA officers sent to the country in 2011 reported back that the conflict was far too fragmented for them to see any easy answer to what Washington should do.
Russian and Chinese intransigence at the United Nations has gummed the mechanisms of international war and peace. Special Representative Lakhdar Brahimi has admitted that his job is looking at a wall, trying to find any cracks.
In the last few months, violence in Syria has escalated into a more conventional civil war. The early manifestations of Syria’s revolution—large public protests across the country—have been replaced by a diverse and fragmented armed opposition fighting an insurgency against what is increasingly viewed as a government that is running out of time and ideas. International support to this opposition has taken a myriad of forms providing legitimacy, money and arms to the rebel fighters.
In June 2012, for example, the Saudi government reportedly agreed to fund Free Syrian Army (FSA)[1] salaries. Both Saudi Arabia and Qatar are leading the supply of weapons to the opposition through Turkey.[2] The Times of London reported the scale of such supplies in September as a ship from Libya arrived in Turkey carrying more than 400 tons of cargo including SAM-7 surface-to-air anti-aircraft missiles and rocket-propelled grenades (RPGs), described by a member of the FSA as “the largest single delivery of assistance to the rebel fighting units we have received.”[3]
These financial and weapons transfers are not without risks. Although the FSA is comprised of secular militias, there are also hard-line Salafi-jihadi fighters among the rebel ranks, and reports increasingly suggest that they are receiving some of the outside financial and weapons aid. Western policymakers worry that a marriage of convenience between secular and Salafi-jihadi fighters against the Bashar al-Assad regime could lead to a bloody divorce along the lines of the Afghan mujahidin in the 1980s. Such a development would add to the instability in the Middle East as Salafi-jihadi fighters could use sophisticated weapons, such as surface-to-air missiles, against other targets in the region.
This article reviews the jihadist presence among the rebel ranks, examines how Syria’s unsecured borders are allowing money, weapons and foreign fighters to filter into the country, and finally warns that supplying weapons to Syrian rebels may destabilize the region further if these weapons are smuggled outside of Syria’s borders.
Donatella Rovera, an investigator with the rights group Amnesty International who recently spent several weeks in Syria, told a press conference in the United States that “on the ground the one question people kept on asking me was why the world is doing nothing?” Indeed with events in Syria moving into a new phase following the assassination of Assef Shawkat and the Free Syria Army entering Damacus, the international community appears more irrelevant to events than ever.
So is Britain playing an effective role towards the Syrian conflict? There certainly has been a frenzy of activity with Britain’s Foreign Secretary, William Hague, rushing between meetings in New York, discussions with the Russians and the meetings with the ‘Friends of Syria’ group. On the 17th of July Hague got as physically close to events as he could when he visited the Bashabsheh refugee camp near the border with Syria and met victims of Assad's brutal onslaught. Earlier in the year Hague taking part in a Twitter debate said that Britain was leading “the way on Syria and Libya at the UN… we launched a whole new programme to support democracy in the Middle East & North Africa with £110 million in funding.”
Indeed despite cuts to the Foreign Office budget the Middle East and North Africa team have been expanded in order to deal with the massive ramifications from the Arab Spring, with priority placed towards Libya and Egypt. Foreign Office officials have spoke of the new opportunities that have come with the revolutions and dealing with new political actors and movements. In the case of Syria in February this year the British government made the bold move of formally recognising the Syrian opposition as legitimate representatives of the country. Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Muallem responded by saying in June that "the world is not only Europe. We will forget that Europe exists on the map. We will ask to withdraw our membership from the Euromed."
Yet while Britain has been on the front foot diplomatically it has remained cautious about getting more drawn into the conflict. Professor Joshua Landis, Director of the Centre for Middle East Studies at University of Oklahoma and author of the popular Syria Comment website, explained to Asharq al-Awsat that “none of the western powers want to get sucked into Syria by intervening too precipitously. The lack of unity among the opposition militias is so not encouraging. How will they stabilize the county once the government falls?”
Sunday Telegraph - The combination of increasing defections, battles in the capital city and the assassination of senior regime figures have seemingly put Assad's rule into a death spiral
Damascus had been largely kept apart from the 16-month conflict in Syria that has claimed an estimated 18,000 lives, with an air of normality pervading the streets while Homs, Syria's third largest city, was reduced to rubble and towns across the country burned. Now, the oldest continually inhabited city on the planet is witnessing humanity at its worst: armed gangs marauding with knives, artillery strikes in built-up areas, and fears of chemical weapons being used.
The killing of four senior regime figures on Tuesday, just three miles from the presidential palace, is a particular blow, putting the Syrian president among those who have now lost relatives in this bloody conflict.
Assad is no Saddam Hussein; while the Iraqi dictator was a one man show, the Syrian president has relied far more on an inner cabal, including his brother-in-law, Assef Shawkat, who was among those killed.
Shawkat was a colossus-like figure within the security establishment and sometimes referred to as the "second president". The US imposed sanctions on him in 2006 after he was linked to the car bomb assassination of former Lebanese prime minister, Rafik Hariri. Live by the bomb, die by the bomb, it would seem.
There is a commonly-used phrase that says that academics and analysts are better at highlighting problems rather than coming up with solutions. This feature attempts to move beyond a purely descriptive analysis of events in Syria and instead paint a picture of the trajectory of the country, potential scenarios it may experience, and options for key actors.
(The Majalla) After over 450 days of protests and an estimated 15,000 reported deaths, there is no sign of Assad’s regime reasserting its control over Syria. Both the US and the EU have signalled their belief that the regime is in a death spiral and that it is only a matter of time before the endgame is reached, with United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon accusing it of having “lost its fundamental humanity.” However, the notion of military intervention is off the table. Not only are the Russians and Chinese preventing any movement from within the UN, but with less than 20 percent of their respective publics supporting military intervention, both Washington and London currently have no stomach for military action.
There is no sign of an imminent collapse of the regime, with defections from the military and ubiquitous secret police failing to reach a critical mass for a host of reasons, including the regime’s threat of retribution against defectors’ families. Syria’s armed forces remain strong, and are thought to number 325,000 regulars with more than 100,000 paramilitary personnel, not to mention the numbers of pro-regime Shabiha. The International Crisis Group (ICG) reported that while at “the outset of the crisis, many among the security forces were dissatisfied and eager for change; most are underpaid, overworked and repelled by high-level corruption. They have closed ranks behind the regime, though it has been less out of loyalty than a result of the sectarian prism through which they view the protest movement and of an ensuing communal defence mechanism.”
Civil wars are rarely declared, but rather are entered into as a consequence of the failure of politics.
This leaves us with the prospect of continued conflict over the short to medium term. However, it is important to note that this scenario is not static, and that a ‘wildcard’ event could lead to either the current regime defeating the rebels, or to the regime being successfully overthrown. An internal, high-level coup or assassination, for example, could suddenly bring about an end to regime. In May, opposition elements reported that they had successfully poisoned several senior regime figures including General Hasan Turkmani, an assistant vice president, and Lieutenant General Mohamed Al-Shaar, the minister of the interior. Although the official Syrian Arab News Agency has called the assertions that they are dead “baseless,” the story is a reminder of how unexpected events can come into play. Indeed, reports of the regime preparing to use chemical weapons against the protesters could end opposition and be another catalyst for a change. In February, the opposition reported that Syria’s military had begun stockpiling chemical weapons and equipping its soldiers with gas masks near the city of Homs. A ‘Syrian Hallabja’ could force a new momentum on building a still non-existent appetite for intervention.
Despite a Chatham House paper speculating that a ‘Syrian Srebrenica’ massacre could act as a ‘tipping point’ for intervention, the reaction to the Houla and Qubair killings proved otherwise. Indeed, Kofi Annan has warned that “mass killings could become part of everyday reality in Syria.” There is also the prospect of unforeseen regional events, such as a third intifada in the occupied Palestinian territory or an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, which could lead to a host of ramifications.
London, Asharq Al-Awsat - The month of May saw a double suicide attack in Damascus that brought a country increasingly defined by an atmosphere of Civil War to the top of the news as a victim of terrorism. The attack was eerily similar to the ones that have blighted Iraq over the past ten years. The first bomber’s vehicle attempted to breach the walls of a Syrian military intelligence building while the second vehicle exploded a few minutes later decimating the crowd that had gathered killing 55 and wounding hundreds more. Syria's state-run news agency was quick to publish gruesome pictures of the victims of the attack which President Bashar al-Assad's regime pinned on "foreign-backed terrorist groups."
The standard questions speculating who was behind the bombings followed with Al-Qaeda and its latest offshoot Jabhat al-Nusra (JN) coming out as the prime suspect, a view confirmed by the United Nations and the United States. The fact that the regime in Damascus has wanted to define the conflict as one between the government and terrorists since its inception in March 2011 has led the opposition to quite legitimately challenge this Al Qaeda narrative. As Stephen Starr, author of “Revolt: Eyewitness to the Syrian Uprising”, explained to Asharq Al-Awsat; “we have always had to second guess the regime when it talks about terrorism in Syria; because of the broader propaganda we regularly can't believe their claims. With this is mind, I don't think we can be sure terrorists are actually responsible for the recent bombings in Damascus, despite apparent claims of such. It is all too hazy to declare anything with certainty”.
I asked a question on Syria to General Odierno at Chatham House today (6.6.12):
On a practical level, what military resources would you say are needed to prevent the Syrian government targeting its own people?
Here is Odierno's paraphrased response.
"We need to focus on how do we solve this crisis without making it worse. Syria has much more capability than Libya, therefore we have to be very careful when considering intervention. I'm interested in the conflict prevention idea and what the impact will be on neighboring countries, I'm especially interested to see what the neighbors can do. It is a very complex problem and the issue will run and run. Important question to be answered about who the opposition are. This is one of the many factors that have to be resolved before political decisions are made going forward".
London, Asharq Al-Awsat- This April was not only the wettest for the UK since records began but also saw the country enter a double dip recession as the economy shrunk by 0.2%. The country is two years into a Liberal Democrat-Conservative Coalition Government whose economic plans combine a deficit reducing package of austerity with private sector export-led recovery. However the current recovery is proving to be the slowest in history, slower even than following the 1929 Great Depression. Indeed 2012 saw the UK fall behind Brazil in GDP as it edged closer to falling out of the list of top ten ranking global economies. The rankings are not perfect but what is clear is that the UK economy, like many in Europe, is stagnating if not declining. For Britain’s policy makers in Westminster, the question of how to manage this challenge and reposition the UK economy in an increasingly competitive global economy is an issue of paramount importance in modern politics.
A Commercial Foreign Policy
One of the key strategies the current government has adopted is an aggressive promotion of the UK globally as a vibrant and dynamic market in which to invest and do business. The UK foreign office has made promoting Britain’s prosperity a central part of its wider foreign policy agenda. The government has recently launched the “GREAT” Britain campaign designed to use the platform of the Olympic Games in 2012 to “showcase Britain’s capabilities, to promote and enhance our reputation abroad and to maximise the economic potential of the Games”. It was announced by Prime Minister David Cameron in New York on 21 September 2011, and supports the marketing and public diplomacy efforts of UK Trade & Investment (UKTI), Visit Britain, the British Council, the Foreign Office and other government departments overseas.
The government has also undertaken several high-profile trade missions to emerging economies including China, India, and most recently South East Asia. The 2010 delegation to China was led by Prime Minister Cameron who travelled with the largest ever British trade mission to the country, including four other Cabinet ministers and 43 business delegates, as well as a small education and culture delegation. Following the visit a Parliamentary Select Committee praised the delegation for delivering “a number of tangible business outcomes. Trade deals announced included a $5 billion deal with Airbus and a £750 million deal with Rolls Royce”. The Committee also agreed that the “importance of regular high-level engagement with China should not be under-estimated”, while the Daily Mail reported that Government officials insist that exports to countries where Mr. Cameron takes a trade delegation are boosted by a fifth. Indeed after signing a £700m arms deal in India in 2010 Cameron spoke of how the trip was "evidence of our new, commercial foreign policy in action".
(The Independent) Two suicide bombs exploded in Damascus yesterday, killing at least 55 people and wounding hundreds more in the single worst atrocity since the start of the Syrian uprising against President Bashar al-Assad's rule last year.
The massive rush-hour car bombings, which targeted a notorious branch of the Syrian secret police, sparked a round of claims and counter-claims, with the government blaming "terrorists" and the opposition accusing the regime for the devastating attack.
Beirut, Asharq Al-Awsat- There is an often said phrase that any political earthquake in the Middle East will lead to tremors in Lebanon. The country is a geopolitical chessboard that plays host to struggles ranging from the Arab-Israeli conflict to the Arab-Iranian Cold War. Yet despite a deepening and increasingly bloody conflict in Syria, Lebanon has remained largely calm over the past 14 months. While there have been both pro and anti-Syrian regime protests there has been no large-scale breakdown in order.
Nadim Shehadi, from the Chatham House think tank, described the situation in Lebanon as “immune to flaring up”. Shehadi explained to Asharq Al-Awsat: “It is un-inflammable…in the last seven years since the assassination of Hariri there have been many torches thrown at it and it has shown immunity.” In March, Western diplomats stated that “Lebanon has managed to maintain stability, thanks to an international decision to isolate the country from the turbulence in the region”.
Yet with violence in Syria worsening by the day, and deep scepticism over the durability of ceasefires, can Lebanon remain hermetically sealed from the chaos in its eastern neighbour?
London, Asharq Al-Awsat-In the shadow of the global financial crisis the English Premier League’s relentless expansion continues. Multi-million pound transfers catch the eye including the 2011 record breaking £50 million for Fernando Torres and £30 million for Andy Carroll, making him the most expensive English player. On top of this, players’ wages continue to rise with Carlos Tevez earning £220,000 per week, despite not playing a game since falling out with the club in September of last year. In addition to the millions earned in television revenue and the packed stadiums, a key source of football financing is the era of super rich foreign owners. Yet the jury is out as to whether they are investing in economically sound institutions or simply buying high profile playthings.
The purchase of Chelsea football club by Roman Abramovich in 2003 fired the starting gun for oligarchs and magnates from across the globe to look with hungry eyes at the potential for owning British football clubs. However the abrupt descent this year of one of Scotland’s largest clubs, Glasgow Rangers, into administration has led to increasing speculation that the boom of football club economies may be heading for a dramatic bust. This feature examines the nature and sustainability of football club ownership models, chronicling the evolution of how money from Russia, America, the Far East and the Gulf has come to play a central role and questions how healthy a future these clubs are likely to have.
James Denselow & Sam Hardy, London, Asharq Al-Awsat. Lance Price, a former BBC political journalist and media adviser to then Prime Minister Tony Blair, wrote in 2010 that “Britain boasts one of the oldest democracies on earth. Her political traditions have been admired and copied the world over. Yet today they are in crisis”. Price was unaware at the time that a greater crisis was brewing at the heart of the British political and media establishment that would explode in a frenzy of allegations around phone hacking that would bring down the best-selling English language newspaper on the planet in July 2011 and lead to the creation into an inquiry that would seek to challenge the foundations of how the media in Britain operates.
That paper was the News of the World, a Sunday tabloid with a 168-year old history that was famous for its explosive 'scoops' where it beat its rivals to a story or exposed a high-profile incident or celebrity. It was famous for deploying a 'Fake Sheikh', the undercover journalist Mazher Mahmood, who would conduct sting operations with the assistance of hidden cameras. The paper claimed that his actions led to the arrest of over 250 criminals, his most famous scoop was in August 2010 when he exposed a cricket bookie named Mazhar Majeed who revealed that Pakistani cricketers had committed spot-fixing during Pakistan's 2010 tour of England. The paper was owned by News International, a subsidiary of News Corporation - the world's second-largest media conglomerate - whose chairman is the Australian born media mogul Rupert Murdoch. Murdoch's power and influence over British politics has been an issue of constant speculation. Before he became Prime Minister Tony Blair admitted in 1994 that in the next election “the only thing that matters in this campaign is the media”. In 1995 Blair would lay the groundwork for Murdoch's support of his 1997 election win when, as leader of the opposition, he flew to a small Australian island to speak at one of his conference’s.
Can the Arab League finally live up to its potential?
(The Majalla) After playing a prominent role in the Libyan revolution and taking the lead in scrutinizing events in Syria, many observers are seeing the Arab League in a new light and asking whether the organization can become a more effective forum for multilateral decision making in the wake of the Arab Spring.
Multilateral bodies such as the Arab League have faced tough questions about their effectiveness in recent years. Chatham House Director Dr. Robin Niblett emphasized that “the nation state is being empowered, not disempowered … in terms of global governance we also have a world where power is shifting to the south and the east. This is a critical challenge to the current multilateral system.” Institutionally, the majority of global multilateral agencies are crying out for reform with the UN and its Security Council (UNSC) looking increasingly outdated, yet there are signs of changes in the role and importance of regional multinational organizations such as the Arab League.
(Janes Defence Weekly)As the US prepares to withdraw its military forces from Iraq, the Al-Qaeda franchise still present there prepares to take advantage of the likely vacuum to test the capabilities of Iraq’s security forces and exacerbate sectarian tensions.
KEY POINTS
• Al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) has been significantly degraded since 2007, but still remains capable of carrying out lethal attacks as it continues its efforts to incite a sectarian conflict in Iraq.
• Iraq’s security forces will struggle to maintain the pace and quality of counter-terrorism operations when US military forces withdraw at the end of the year.
• The incomplete incorporation of Sunni militias into the state remains a crucial test for an Iraqi government that has been accused of marginalising its Sunni Arab population.
President Barack Obama announced on 21 October that the United States would fully withdraw its remaining soldiers from Iraq by the end of the year. "The last American soldiers will cross the border out of Iraq with their heads held high, proud of their success, and knowing that the American people stand united in our support for our troops. That is how America’s military efforts in Iraq will end," he said.
The US soldiers will leave behind a fragile and deeply contested Iraqi state that is still recovering from decades of war and sanctions. Despite the significant improvement in security since violence peaked in 2007, the country continues to suffer regular militant attacks and heavy casualties.
A plethora of militant groups remain active, the most high profile being Al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI), which now refers to itself as the Islamic State of Iraq. While Al-Qaeda appears to have been marginalised in many Middle Eastern and North African countries by the ‘Arab Spring’ and counter-terrorism efforts, AQI looks set to maintain a toehold in Iraq by exploiting the fault lines in the country’s deeply divided society and its overstretched security forces.
(CMEC) The death toll continues to rise in Syria where nearly seven months of violence has led to the deaths of over 3,000 civilians. The UN Security Council, hit by a double veto from China and Russia earlier in the month, are divided and powerless. Ban Ki-Moon told reporters in Switzerland this week that ‘this killing must stop. Immediately,’ but has failed in the past even to get hold of Assad on the telephone. Meanwhile the Arab League, famous for providing much needed regional cover for the NATO operations in Libya, is also split between those countries who argue that Assad has lost his legitimacy, led by Saudi Arabia and the GCC, and those such as Yemen and Algeria who believe that the President is the best candidate to lead a reform process in the country.
The embattled Assad has offered a shopping list of ‘carrots’ to appease the protestors ranging from ending the emergency law, citizenship for thousands of stateless Kurds, reformed media and political party laws, replacing the parliament, drafting a new constitution and bizarrely guaranteeing the right to peaceful protest. The use of simultaneous ‘sticks’, including the deployment of tanks and snipers, armed militias, mass arrests and – according to Amnesty International and other human rights organisations – lethal torture, has led many in the country to reject his promises as false intentions, claiming that the regime is willing to do whatever it takes to ensure that its forty-one year rule of the country is maintained.
